Rural Texas Field Report 11.4.2024 (#2)
2024 Pre-Election Report with a view from Rural Texas
In this Report:
The 2024 Political Money Game
Harris leapfrogs Trump in a New Iowa Poll
Vouchers on the Ballot
My Watch List: Run Down of the Texas Legislative Races
Lt Gov Patrick sits with his Garbage
Greetings From Georgia
Tuesday is election day and my pre-election thoughts this year are strong. This election has been expensive, divisive, and arguably counterproductive for most of us “regular” Americans out here. The country is extremely divided and the outcome of this election is going to be dependent simply on who shows up to vote. and then the question will be, where do we go from here? What we need in America is a coalition to come together, to govern and do what’s best for ALL Americans. Will that happen, I guess we will see.
I’m not in Texas this week, I’m in Georgia house, dog, and niece “sitting” for my baby sister, still a Texan at heart, who now lives in Savannah. Wow, swing states, it is brutal for ya’ll, with ads and campaign signs, and I can’t image the mail and text messages you are receiving. Of course, I talked politics with two different Lyft drivers and I will say both were very well-educated voters who had both voted, I was very impressed.
After all these years, I will say that am smart enough not to forecast or make predictions about any elections or legislative outcomes, but I do want to share with you what I’ll be watching and following on Tuesday.
Billions and Billions of Dollars
It is incredible the amount of money that has been spent during the 2024 election cycle. We hear all of these politicians talk about the crappy economic situation, but it’s hard to believe that they have poured billions of dollars into consultants, mail, television, radio, and other tactical operations. Ad Impact Politics reported that as of 10/25/24 the 2024 Election cycle has seen $9.08 Billion in aired spending with almost another $1B reserved.
In the Texas Senate Race, a total of $180M in ad spending with Democrats leading the money game with $72.6M spent and Democrat Colin Allred has spent $107.5M spent. Cruz won in 2018 by only 212,000 votes and the Texas Senate race is considered a competitive race for the first time in almost 30 years.
In the Texas Legislative Races, the latest financial reports show $11 M raised by Republicans vs $3.5 M raised by Democrats. Miriam Adelson of Nevada Casinos contributed heavily through Texas Defense PAC and Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR) and sizable donations by Elon Musk, a relatively new moneyman in Texas putting in $3M. You also have Speaker Dade Phelan with sizable donations to House incumbents and Governor Abbott supporting candidates to shore up his marginal voucher votes.
Transparency USA Texas election fundraising breakdown shows overall $275 Million raised in Texas Reps with $222 Million and Dems with $54 Million
The Selzer Iowa Poll
A new poll released Saturday by the Des Moines Register in Iowa shows Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%.
While the poll is still within the margin of error, it’s significant as a sign of what might be happening in rural, red states. The poll shows that women — in particular those who +65 or those who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
It’s also worth mentioning that Republicans have pushed extreme campaigns on abortion and vouchers in Iowa even though polls showed Iowans opposed both vouchers and the six-week ban “fetal heartbeat” ban. Both pieces of legislation have recently gone into effect in Iowa. It has to be considered that this could be impacting who is turning out to vote in this very Red State, and who they are voting for. (Dear Texas Legislators and TXGOP, please take note.)
The Trump campaign has responded to the Des Moines Register poll with the findings in an Emerson poll in Iowa which shows Trump 53% and Harris 43%.
Vouchers are on the Ballot in other States
Since we’re talking about Vouchers, something worth watching is how the voucher initiatives are going to play out in other states, especially states that have a rural, Republican constituency relatable to Texas.
In Colorado and Kentucky voters will vote yes or no on adding language supporting school choice to their states' constitutions but neither lays out specifics for a statewide program.
In Colorado voters will affirm that students have a “right to choose” in education, clarifying that that right includes private school. Experts in Colorado say this will then lead to the legislature being compelled to fund private education.
In Kentucky, they are voting to change the constitution to allow future funding designated by the Legislature to go to taxpayer dollars to go to private schools. This is the latest move by pro-voucher advocates after the Kentucky Supreme Court struck down 2021 voucher laws as unconstitutional.
In Nebraska, voters will decide whether to repeal a $10 million school voucher program its state legislature passed this year. In Nebraska, the citizens gathered enough petitions to put a referendum on the ballot to overturn the decision the State Legislature made to use public dollars to fund private school vouchers.
TEXAS RACES
Cruz vs Allred
This week Ted Cruz was asked by the Texas News if Rural Texas would carry him over the finish line like it did six years ago, here’s what he said:
Counties to Watch
Tarrant County will be a pivotal county to watch on Tuesday as the votes get counted. Democrats are hoping that Tarrant County will trend purple and that will help carry Allred to a statewide victory.
Biden Won Tarrant County over Trump by a slight margin of 49.3% to 49.1%. In 2016 Trump won Tarrant 52.2% to 43.5% over Clinton. In 2020, Biden also won for the first time in two suburban counties outside of Austin, Williamson and Hays Counties.
In the US Senate Race, I‘m also watching Jefferson County, Beto O’Rourke won Jefferson in 2018 and Trump won it in 2020. Looking South, the Republicans have invested heavily their efforts in the Counties along the Mexico border for Trump and Cruz, so I’ll be watching to see what progress is made there and whether they can flip any of those counties from Blue to Red.
Because rural Texas matters, I’ll be watching the rural counties to see what the final turnout numbers will be. I have seen several reports that early vote turnout in rural areas has been high, but that’s typical. The problem I see is that rural areas don’t often have competitive races locally to drive them to polls during the primaries, I’ve not seen signification resources ever invested in the Rural areas (outside of the Border) to maximize turnout. I’ve always believed this was a missed opportunity for the GOP, it feels like they take the rural voters for granted — you can expect 80% for the GOP in much of the Red areas of the state — but never invest in getting us excited and out to vote. Maybe someday someone will hear my call and send the resources.
Races to Watch
Here’s the list of Texas Legislative races that I’m watching on Tuesday. There is only one race in the Senate to watch, that’s Senator La Mantia’s race in South Texas. In the House, I’ve got twelve races on this list, but I think six are actual toss-ups. I’ve looked at the Trump numbers from 2018, population changes, and where the Ds and the Rs have spent their money to develop my list.
I am particularly interested in how the races play out and how that will impact the voucher voter next session. The big race that matters in this storyline is Dist 121 where Abbott targeted Steve Allison on voucher vote. Prominent Republicans like Former Senator Jeff Wentworth have endorsed the Democrat Laurel Swift in this race and Dems are putting big resources into Bexar County and the Voucher issue is a major issue in the race. This would be a anti-voucher Democrat pick-up in the House that Gov Abbott and the voucher crowd would be directly responsible for. The other district with a similar story is HD 55, but that seat looks much safer to me.
I’m rooting hard for Republican Angie Chen Button, who’s in a marginal, competitive seat. She’s a voucher vote but I’m for her anyway because she’s done a good job as a Legislator and I would hate to lose her experience in the House.
Photo of the Week
Folks, we have gone to a whole new level of strangeness in Texas politics. Lt Gov Dan Patrick Posted this on X earlier this week following the comments made by President Biden calling Trump supporters garbage. I guess some will do anything to get on Fox News. I’ll just leave this here for you to form your own opinion.
