Texas Rural Report 10.25.2024
In this Edition:
Early Voting Continues next week.
Trump and Harris Campaign in Texas.
Last Week’s US Senate Debate - Allred vs Cruz.
A House Legislative Committee Stops a death row execution, for now.
Texas Political Project Poll Results
New Podcast with Michael Lee of Booker ISD
There are eleven days until the election and eighty days until the start of the 2025 Legislative Session. The temperatures have dropped across Texas, we hit thirty-three here in the Panhandle last week, and the political heat has turned up in Austin.
Early Voting Continues next week
Early Voting for the upcoming November 5th election started on Monday, October 21st in Texas. In addition to voting for President, many local, state, and federal candidates are on the ballot.
Vote By Mail: If you are 65 years old, you will be out of the county during early voting and one election day, or you are unable to vote in person for health reasons, you may request a ballot and vote by mail. To request an application to vote by mail, call your local or county office holding the election or fill out this form on the Texas Secretary of State’s website. You can submit the application by mail, fax or email to your Early Voting Clerk. The deadline to apply for a ballot by mail is October 25th and it must be returned by November 5th to be counted. Please read your ballot and instructions carefully and follow them closely to ensure your vote will count.
Vote In Person: Anyone registered to vote may vote early, in person between Oct. 21st and Nov. 1st. During the early voting period, eligible voters can cast ballots at any polling location in the county where they are registered to vote. Contact your county elections office or check your county elections office’s website for early voting locations. Remember you must provide a valid ID to vote. County election offices may also post sample ballots, you should contact their offices for more information.
Derek Ryan is a political consultant in Austin who tracks early voting in Texas. According to his latest report (through Thursday), statewide turnout is 15%; nearly 3 million people have voted; and 57 counties have surpassed 20%. Voters with Republican Primary history have a 387K vote advantage over Democrat Primary voters. New registrants make up 10% of the early voters and the Youth (under 30) make up 8% of the early vote. Voters aged 70+ make up 30% of early votes, but only 15% of all registered voters and senior votes may be included due to the vote-by-mail option which is primarily available to this group.
2024 ELECTION
Trump and Cruz in Austin; Harris and Allred in Houston
The national spotlight was on Texas on Friday as Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both traveled to Texas for campaign stops. Trump and Texas Sen Ted Cruz made remarks in Austin on Border Security and Harris in Houston with Colin Allred will hold a rally which will include guests Willie Nelson and Beyonce Knowles. Texas for many years has been considered a bright red state, but in recent weeks both for the Presidential and the US Senate races Texas has moved into the Leans Red column.
Cruz and Allred debate from Dallas
WFAA in Dallas hosted a U.S. Senate Debate last week between Senator Ted Cruz and Colin Allred. It was a lively debate with pundits on both sides claiming victory for their guy. I would argue both Cruz and Allred got the hits they needed in on each other and my call is that the debate was essentially a wash.
Cruz is a great debater. He was poised and stuck to his script, which was to paint Allred as a radical leftist who lets criminals cross the border and wants boys playing girl’s sports and boys using girls’ bathrooms. Effectively, Cruz said that Allred’s votes were the same as Nancy Pelosi’s, and Cruz positioned himself as an ally to Donald Trump.
Allred is charming. He launched a few memorable one-liners at Cruz saying the Senator was “all hat and no cattle” and that he “puts on his work clothes and goes to the border”. He hit Cruz on his decision to go to Cancun when Texans needed him during the ice storm and power outages, and he attacked Cruz for his role in the January 6th denial of the 2020 election. Allred also argued that Cruz’s extreme position on abortion was putting the lives of Texas women in danger.
It is believed by the experts that Cruz holds a slight lead, however, polling in Texas shows that 11% of the electorate is still undecided in this race.
AROUND THE CAPITOL
Policy Work to Begin in the House
Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan announced the creation of 8 policy workgroups for legislative members to join and prepare ahead of the next session. They are budget reform, childcare accessibility & affordability, Water supply & infrastructure, support for law enforcement, veterans services, healthcare infrastructure & access to healthcare, housing availability & affordability, and property & casualty insurance. He also announced some key staff changes as they head into the next legislative session.
Robert Roberson Execution
A bi-partisan effort of the House Committee on Criminal Jurisprudence led by Republican Chairman Representative Jeff Leach and Democrat Joe Moody by unanimous vote took unprecedented action and issued a subpoena for death row inmate Robert Roberson just hours ahead of his execution on Thursday of last week. The subpoena triggered a series of court decisions over a few tense, crazy hours Thursday evening, ultimately landing at the Texas Supreme Court where they ruled the execution must be halted and Roberson must appear before the House committee. The Committee met in Austin on Monday to hear testimony from witnesses involved in the case. Roberson was scheduled to appear but did not. Others testifying included TV personality Dr. Phil and author John Grisham who have both been following this case. Roberson was convicted of killing his daughter and causing her death due to “shaken baby syndrome”, a diagnosis that science has proven to be junk science since his conviction.
The legislature has never intervened in this way to stop an execution. This historic legal maneuver was initiated by supporters who are citing a law they passed that requires courts to review cases where junk science has caused the conviction to be reviewed. In the Roberson case, and execution was ordered, without a review of the case, and since the courts did not act, nor did the Parole Board or the Governor, the legislators felt the subpoena was necessary.
The issue has put the leaders in Republican circles at odds with each other, with some siding with the Legislators and others calling for Roberson’s execution. And while this legislative move has delayed the execution, for now, at the end of the day, only Governor Gregg Abbott as the executive branch has the authority to stop the execution of Roberson. We’ll keep you posted as this plays out.
Texas Political Project Poll
With early voting about to kick off in Texas, the latest 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds former president Donald Trump leading Vice-President Kamala Harris 51% to 46% among likely voters in the presidential race in Texas.
The poll includes self-identified “rural” voters who make up 18% of the sample. Rural voters prefer Trump 65% to Harris 31% (Trump +34) and approve Cruz 61% to Allred 33% (Cruz +28).
Rural Voters in the poll identified the economy as their top issue facing the country, followed by rising inflation costs. The state issues they were most concerned about were immigration and the border. Public education funding likely is one of the biggest issues facing Texas currently, but that issue was not tested in this survey.
Another Podcast Drops
Next week, we will drop a new podcast, an interview with Micheal Lee, superintendent of Book ISD. Michael is a former lobbyist for the Texas Rural Schools Coalition so he has a lot to say about the state of public education in Austin. Lee also led Booker to their latest designation as a Texas Blue Ribbon School.
Follow me on X
If you want to keep up with the news happening during the week, follow me on X @sbellsnyder and @TxRuralReport.